China has built the world's largest navy and has become increasingly assertive over contested areas such as the South China Sea. The consequences for us would be very serious in terms of the Australian economy, the impact on the Australian people and the ravages to our way of life throughout the land. There are debates today about how reform of the UN is needed to deal with contemporary security challenges but not much progress has been made. Chinese control of Taiwan would also strengthen Beijings ability to control the South China Sea by blocking the Luzon Strait and the Balintang and Babuyan channels, Control of Taiwan would make it easier for the PLA to reach Guam using long-range missiles and air power, extending its anti-access capabilities beyond the first island chain.. And the West may not be able to do much about it. By the time the Peoples Liberation Army launches its third volley of missiles at the island Beijing considers a breakaway province, the US could be just learning of the attack. China is also developing the capabilities needed to support military operations at range, said Nouwens, suggesting they could attack across large distances. Would any divergence of perspectives be thrashed out before going to war? Allan Behm, who is now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10years, the best one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. And each one would require a heavy investment of equipment and lives to neutralise if they could be reached in the first place. Fundamentally, it would follow the strategic prescriptions of Sun Tzu in The Art of War. "The question is really about a force-on-force comparison between China and the US. Have employers used high inflation as cover to make excessive profits? ", "China began planning in earnest for a potential conflict with the United States over Taiwan after the May 1999 bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade.". Current Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would presumably discuss the matter with his National Security Cabinet before any decision is made but there are no checks and balances built into the system before the PM makes the biggest decision that a leader can make to send our young men and women to war. With China's rise and democracy's decline, what will the global order look like in 2050? Any such war, he says, would primarily be a maritime conflict and would be on a scale unprecedented since World War II. He says given the rate at which Chinese forces are modernising and building capability and capacity "a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035". "When the US closed down Bagram airbase in Afghanistan the Afghan Army collapsed. Today, the analysis of Allan Behm, a former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department and Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military, are investigated. "Australia should take a position where averting war is a serious policy objective. At least initially, the bulk of any such conflict would be at sea. "Australia has been there before. And in a defensive war, China has the enormous advantage of mass, as Stalin demonstrated after the end of 1942.". Russia, China, Britain, U.S. and France say no one can win nuclear war "It depends. Imaginary targets could quickly be replaced by real ones. That means large paved airfields, humidity-controlled hangars and AI-enhanced maintenance equipment. Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military. The world in 2025: China loses power, Russia 'won't exist' THE world's superpowers will be thrown into chaos and the war on IS will end. "The forces are relatively evenly matched, because USadvantages in technology are balanced by China's advantages in geography fighting close to home. They may withhold their offensive cyber power to prevent the US learning their operations. I am convinced that the challenges facing the United States are serious, and its citizens need to become better aware of them. The attrition model appears to be deeply ingrained in the US approach to land warfare. "A big unknown is whether Japan would grant expanded rights to the US to use bases located on its territory, without itself joining the combat directly unless its territory is attacked. . Despite its 1.9 million-strong army, compared to Taiwans cohort of 150,000, the task of taking its island neighbour and holding it is a mammoth military challenge. Our former role in the establishment of the UN is an exemplar of the kind of country we should aspire to be. The head of Russian mercenary group Wagner says his forces have practically encircled the crucial city of Bakhmut. An earlier government tinkered with the concept of a reduction in the ten years of warning but did almost nothing about demonstrating seriousness. The U.S. economy is heavily dependent on Chinese resources and manufactured goods, including many with military applications, and American consumers rely on moderately priced Chinese-made imports for everything from electronics to furniture to shoes. And they cannot be rearmed at sea. We dont own cargo ships to force vital supplies through any blockade. The four have more than 100 years of high-level military and strategic experience between them. Surrounded: Disturbing report from Ukraine. Washington and Beijing are locked in an intense strategic battle. I think the US now accepts it may lose a conflict at least at the conventional level with China.. And that would leave Australias critical fuel supply links to Singapore desperately exposed. The last time Chinese troops saw direct action was 1979 when China launched a costly month-long war against Vietnam to teach it a lesson in retaliation for Hanois actions in south-east Asia. Russia, China, Britain, U.S. and France say no one can win nuclear war. Put bluntly, the repercussions of Australia joining the US in any war with China over the status of Taiwan or any other issue may have catastrophic consequences. Our economy would be paralysed as all trade with China and other major East Asian partners would stop dead and may not resume for a long time. What would war with China look like for Australia? Australia's oldest running coal-fired power station is about to close. The US Arleigh Burke-class destroyers hold 96. Maybe, the record would show otherwise in time? This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. What determines victory, loss or stalemate between the US and China is likely to be determined by the murky calculus of how much risk and how much pain and loss both sides could endure. Far fewer know their real story. Stavros Atlamazoglou. If we lost a single frigate, that's around 170 lives in an afternoon. Ukrainian, Romanian, and US Army Special . On the military front, the United States should accelerate programs already underway to strengthen and disperse American forces in the Western Pacific to make them less vulnerable to attacks by China. "For its part, Australia is casualty averse, as it should be. It was Kevin Rudd who coined the phrase a "decade of living dangerously". Australias Air Warfare Destroyers pack just 42. "Ultimately, I do not see how America could inflict enough damage on China to force Beijing to concede over Taiwan, without using nuclear weapons. "Chinas air defences are likely to prove formidable, but so are US and allied air capabilities. AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), abc.net.au/news/china-us-war-what-would-conflict-look-like-taiwan/101998772, Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. And, if a shooting war does break out, the US and its allies are not guaranteed a win. Stock exchanges in the United States and other countries might temporarily halt trading because of the enormous economic uncertainties. And what would such a fight look like? Some 64 percent of Australians viewed a potential military conflict between the U.S. and China as a "critical threat" to Australia's national interests, behind Russia's foreign policy (68 percent . Find out more about our policy and your choices, including how to opt-out. Korea was an unnecessary war, as were the conflicts in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. The PLAs missile forces are central to Chinas efforts to deter and counter third-party intervention in a regional conflict, a US congressional report concluded this month. of Strategic Forum in Canberra, Australia. Space would be the first place both sides would go to strike the others forces in event of a conflict, says Tate Nurkin of the US-based Intelligence Group. "I hope they don't mean that, just as Britain has the Gurkhas, the Americans have us. Jamie Seidel @JamieSeidel 5 min read May 25, 2020 - 11:05AM The United States just lost a battle to save Taiwan from a Chinese invasion and it's not the first time. US vs. China: Who Would Win a War in 2030? "They're aggressively expanding their influence," he said. US fighters can operate out of Guam with adequate air-to-air refuelling support, but the round-trip transit time for a sortie is about six hours.". Rising tensions or unforeseen circumstances that couldlead to war, however, can sometimes overtake those working for peace. Behm says the impact on Australia of a war with China would be "profoundly and devastatingly different" from any other war this country has participated in since World War II. Wed like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. I don't think so! A war would halt this trade (as well as American and allied shipments to China). I think China now has adequate forces, including air, missile, electronic warfare, spec ops, naval, undersea and nuclear, to likely prevail in the first phase and perhaps in subsequent phases too.. For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other US allies and partners simultaneously.". The decision to go to war would not require a public discussion. I did not see anything like the same discontent in Australia. He spent the bulk. The People's Liberation Army is the military arm of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, which oversees the PLA through its Central . "But, in a large-scale war involving many hundreds of thousands of people in offensive and defensive operations, even before reaching the attendant prospect of reaching a nuclear war threshold, Australia is unlikely to make a substantial difference. The Pentagon's new report on the Chinese military suggests the effectiveness of the People's Liberation Army is less about numbers of missiles than in how they intellectually and organisationally prepare for war. Please try again later. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. China also has more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles poised to strike U.S. and allied forces in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and American-held territories in the Western Pacific. One accident. It isn't Ukraine. "Were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years, the best scenario one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. Hopefully Australian statesmen would have played a significant role in the lead up to a breakdown in cross straits relations.". China could also weaponize its dominance of supply chains and shipping. Yet if China wanted to conquer Taiwan, the outcome could be different. Which is why Dr Davis argues any conflict would likely focus on two strategic waterways the Bashi Channel and Miyako Strait that guard the China Seas. A new 'veloway' is welcome news for Melbourne's cyclists. Then, it was mainly Germany, and from the 1930s Japan. The Australian army is extremely careful to preserve the force-in-being by keeping casualties to a minimum. Professor Clinton Fernandesis a former intelligence officer in the Australian military and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. Protests break out in Iran as more schoolgirls hospitalised after suspected poisoning. Vertical launch systems (VLS) are the modern-day equivalent of the World War II-era big gun. "I cannot conceive that there are any benefits in Australia being at war with China unless the circumstances were so serious as to make the cost in lives and treasury worthwhile. The bulk of these goods is transported aboard ships along sea lanes increasingly controlled by Chinese commercial interests that are ultimately answerable to Chinas party-state. Professor Hugh White, a former Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Department of Defence, Admiral Chris Barrie, Australias most senior military leader asChief of the Defence Force from 1998 to 2002, Allan Behm, a former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department. If China chooses to attack the island of Taiwan, the United States could be helpless to stop it. The US has launched 615 satellites into space in the last three years, compared to 168 by China, according to Lowy. These operations would most likely be accompanied by cyber offensives to disrupt electricity, gas, water, transport, health care and other public services. "Australia is never reluctant to support and participate in American adventurism. It may turn out to be childs play compared with the havoc China could wreak on the American homeland in a war. And, crucially, they would probably not be able to inflict enough damage to decisively defeat the Chinese. But which one would have military superiority in outright conflict? For the US, the bigger the coalition of countries joining it in any war, the better. Our biggest customer is now also viewed as our biggest threat andChina's muscle-flexing around Taiwan last week only strengthened the view that a war involving Taiwan is a genuine possibility. How Australia's way of life could change if we're pulled into war with And hes repeatedly expressed his willingness to go to war to remove it. John Howard says he has no regrets about the war in Iraq or Australia's involvement in it. "One can imagine the sociological fracture in Australia with funerals, commemorations, attacks on Australians of Chinese descent, the curtailing of any progressive economic reconstruction agenda for Australia.". "But it is an entirely different story with China. The US would be challenged by a powerful Chinese fleet in the region. Who would win in a war between Australia and the United States - Quora Reinforcing Taiwan would likely involve long and bloody battles at sea as underarmed escorts struggle to protect the few but highly vulnerable available transports. "Notwithstanding their entirely different circumstances, for Australia to support Taiwan against China would be similar to Australia's supporting Catalonia against the Castilians. The Peoples Liberation Army is capable of substantially subduing the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. If other countries come to our aid, that will be highly appreciated, but we will fight the war for our own survival and for our own future.. It has just about every contingency covered. But it has always seemed to me that China, if it decides on military action to force "reunification"is more likely to mount a blockade than an invasion. Russia's struggles in Ukraine are showing US special operators that they'll need to fight without their 'tethers' to win future wars. Iraq should have taught us that it makes no sense to support an ally in a war it cant win, and the stakes are much higher this time.. "This would be followed by a sea-crossing phase, a landing phase and a consolidation phase. In the recent parliamentary inquiry into war powers reform, the Department of Defence said it didn't think parliament should have authority to decide our involvement because that 'could undermine the confidence of our international partners as a reliable and timely security partner'. "The fundamental assumption that we could win a war against China is wrong-headed and hawkish; it is also very risky. But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. Ifthey think the blockade is failing they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted, or they might escalate to attacking US forces that are supporting Taiwan. US v China war: If conflict broke out, who would win? "The scenario of a Chinese attack on Taiwan is often considered the catalyst but even in this case the reasons for, and management of, the breakdown in China-Taiwan relations in the lead up would be critical. February 27, 2023 China's foreign minister Qin Gang will attend the G20 foreign ministers' meeting on March 2. Hugh White, an emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, has warned about the serious consequences that could arise from not adequately addressing tensions. According to the late Sir James Plimsoll [in conversation with me], Mao Zedong said to Prime Minister Nehru when the two met in 1954 that, in a war with any adversary China could afford to dedicate 100 million dead. And that makes the kind of island-hopping campaign used by the US to take back the Pacific from Japan in World War II no longer feasible. The high-altitude balloon that drifted across the United States this month was seen by many Americans as a shocking Chinese breach of U.S. sovereignty. (Handout photo from the U.S. navy) Admiral James Stavridis was 16th Supreme Allied Commander of NATO and 12th Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. We should not assume it will attempt this.". Taiwan cannot be resupplied by land. A Chinese close-in weapons system (CIWS) designed to shoot down incoming missiles during recent war games. U.S. citizens have grown accustomed to sending their military off to fight far from home. There is a pathway to a future through peaceful dialogue, but its a hard path, and it needs to be worked.. Failing to come to Taiwans aid would seriously weaken and perhaps destroy Americas position in Asia, and our alliance with America would be seriously weakened if not destroyed if we failed to support the US. "If we joined the fight, or allowed US forces involved to operate from bases here, then there would be a clear chance that Australia would face direct attack from Chinese long-range forces. It is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear. Today, Chinas military spending is the second-highest in the world after the United States and continues to rise. China is largely trying to take territorial control, which makes east Asia a likely location for trouble. And that takes the issue of US-China military prowess back to the all-important issue of politics. Especially without comprehensive and numerous missile defence systems. The Miyako Strait connects the East China Sea with the Pacific Ocean. "This looks like another reason for statesmanship in averting this possibility.". But will it be safer for women? This article was originally published by Radio Free Asia and is reprinted with permission. This is a statesman-like response to the challenges we are addressing today wherein the risk of war has grown since 2017, in my opinion. To walk countries away from war we have concluded that statesmanship finds more purchase on risk aversion than on hawkishness. Possibly completely different. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. While most members voted in favor of the six U.N. General Assembly resolutions passed since last . These threats from nature pose potentially disastrous outcomes that look inevitable; we have yet to find the statesmen to deal effectively with them. He believes Australia has a "fundamental strategic pathology to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own.". Protests break out in Iran as more schoolgirls hospitalised after suspected poisoning. The US could no longer win a war against China China's navy has just completed a mission that has left US officials terrified - and it has serious implications for Australia's security. In the previous column the analysesof Hugh White a former Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Department of Defence and Admiral Chris Barrie who served as Australia's most senior military leader as Chief of the Defence Force from 1998 to 2002were explored. "They have publicly been very clear about not only . President Xi Jinping of China has said unifying Taiwan with mainland China must be achieved. His Communist Party regime has become sufficiently strong militarily, economically and industrially to take Taiwan and directly challenge the United States for regional supremacy. All have been involved in sensitive military operations. Is Australia prepared to pay the price to defend its friend Taiwan from China? These flew out of Japan and down the east coast of Taiwan to operate near the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier battle group and the Chinese Liaoning. Are bills set to rise? They would be forced to operate as part of a much greater allied unit. Far fewer know their real story. "As Carl von Clausewitz noted [in his book On War], defence is the stronger form of war. And all are watching with great interest as the drums of war beat in some quarters regarding a possible war with China. "China can impose huge costs on the US and perhaps indefinitely deny air control to the US in that zone. The Australian government has moved to confront Beijing over allegations of human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, and Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian has joined a chorus of. In 1947 with setting up of the United Nations, after the catastrophes of both world wars and the more limited wars in the intervening years, we tried to build a system of managing international relationships without the recourse to war.
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